---
title: "Economic calendar: how to read it and what moves markets"
description: "The economic calendar in plain words: how to read time, impact, actual, forecast and previous, plus NFP, CPI, FOMC, rate decisions and the COT report."
canonical: https://thetraderwiki.com/en/economic-calendar/
lang: en
kind: article
published: 2026-09-30
updated: 2026-10-13
author: "Gabriel L." (https://thetraderwiki.com/en/authors/gabriel-l/)
html: https://thetraderwiki.com/en/economic-calendar/
json: https://thetraderwiki.com/en/economic-calendar/index.json
---

# Economic calendar: how to read one and which releases move markets

[Home](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/) › [Guides](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/learn/) › [Economic calendar](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/economic-calendar/)

An economic calendar lists the data releases and central-bank decisions due in the coming days. Each row shows the time, the country or currency, the release name and three figures: previous, forecast and actual. Traders who focus on currencies, indices and gold keep one open, because prices jump at those scheduled moments. If you trade [CFDs](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/glossary/#cfd), contracts that pay out the change in a price without you owning the asset, the calendar also shows when trading costs peak.

This page shows how to read a calendar row and lists the releases that move markets, along with the agency that publishes each one. It explains why the surprise matters more than the number, and what happens to [spreads](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/glossary/#spread) and [slippage](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/glossary/#slippage) around a release. The page ends with the weekly Commitments of Traders report. For the wider picture of what drives each market, see [fundamental analysis](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/fundamental-analysis/).

## Key points

- A calendar row gives you the time, the currency and an impact rating, plus three figures: previous, forecast and actual. The actual figure stays blank until the release comes out.
- Data-producing agencies publish their own release dates months ahead. Every calendar site and app is a copy of those official schedules.
- Prices move on the surprise: how far the actual figure lands from the forecast. If the number is good and everyone saw it coming, the price has already absorbed it.
- Spreads widen in the minutes around a big release, and orders slip too. A [stop-loss](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/glossary/#stop-loss) left in place can be filled at a worse price than the one you set.
- The impact ratings and forecasts come from whoever runs the calendar. Two calendars can therefore disagree about both.
- The Commitments of Traders report is a weekly count of positions in [futures](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/glossary/#futures-contract), contracts to trade at a set price on a later date. The report is published three days after the reference date it covers.

## How to read an economic calendar

To read an economic calendar, you work through one row at a time, moving left to right. The same columns appear in most calendars, and that includes the forex calendar built into a trading platform.

- **Time**: The moment the release is published. Check which time zone the calendar is set to before you trust it. Most calendars let you switch to your local time, and a wrong setting shifts every event by an hour or more.
- **Currency or country**: The economy the figure describes. Every pair that contains the dollar moves on a US release, and gold and stock indices often do too.
- **Impact**: A low, medium or high rating is usually displayed using a colour or a series of icons. The calendar’s own editors decide the rating. No agency releases an official impact rating.
- **Previous**: The figure from the last release is one that agencies often revise. A large revision can shift the market as much as the new number does.
- **Forecast**: The consensus is the middle estimate from a survey of economists. Each calendar runs its own survey, so forecasts vary a little between calendars.
- **Actual**: The published figure. The cell is blank until the release time, then fills in within seconds. The market reacts at that same moment.

## Which releases move markets, and who publishes them

The releases that move markets most are the ones that change where interest rates are expected to go. Every one comes from an official body that publishes its own schedule, and every calendar copies those schedules.

*Major scheduled releases, what they measure and who publishes them.*

| Release | What it is | Published by | When |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Non-farm payrolls (NFP) | The monthly count of US jobs outside farming, part of the Employment Situation report | [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) | Monthly at 8:30 a.m. US Eastern time ([BLS schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)) |
| CPI (consumer price index) | The average change over time in the prices urban consumers pay for a basket of goods and services ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)) | Bureau of Labor Statistics | Monthly at 8:30 a.m. US Eastern time ([BLS schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm)) |
| FOMC decision | The US interest rate decision, taken by the Federal Open Market Committee | [Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/) | Eight regularly scheduled meetings a year ([FOMC calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)) |
| Euro-area rate decision | The interest rate decision for the euro area, followed by a press conference | [European Central Bank](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/) | On the second day of each monetary policy meeting ([ECB meeting calendar](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html)) |
| UK rate decision | The UK interest rate decision, published with the minutes of the meeting | [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/) | Eight times a year at 12 noon UK time, usually on a Thursday ([Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy)) |
| GDP | The value of the final goods and services an economy produces | National statistics agencies. In the US, the Bureau of Economic Analysis ([BEA](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product)) | Quarterly, with later estimates that revise the first |
| PMI | A purchasing managers’ index: a monthly survey that asks company buyers whether business is getting better or worse | Private survey firms and trade bodies | Monthly, early in the month |

## What NFP, CPI and FOMC mean

NFP, CPI and FOMC are the three abbreviations you’ll see most on a calendar. All three are American. US releases reach almost every market because the dollar is on one side of most currency trades ([forex trading](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/forex-trading/#what-drives-rates)).

### What is NFP?

NFP stands for non-farm payrolls, the headline jobs number in the monthly US Employment Situation report ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm)). It comes from a survey of about 119,000 businesses and government agencies ([Current Employment Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ces/)). The same report carries the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, and traders read all three together. A strong jobs number with weak pay growth can send the dollar either way, so the headline alone doesn’t settle the reaction.

### What is CPI?

CPI is the consumer price index, the most watched measure of inflation. Calendars show it as a monthly and a yearly change. They also list a “core” version that leaves out food and energy, because those prices swing the most from month to month. Central banks raise rates to slow inflation, so a CPI figure above the forecast tends to lift the currency.

### What is the FOMC?

The FOMC is the Federal Open Market Committee, the group inside the Federal Reserve that sets US interest rates. It has twelve voting members ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm)). After each meeting, it publishes a statement and the chair holds a press conference to answer questions. The minutes appear three weeks after the decision and are shown on the calendar as their own event ([FOMC calendar](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm)).

### How does an interest rate decision affect forex?

An interest rate decision affects forex by way of the gap between two countries’ rates. Money tends to flow towards a currency with a rising rate, because it pays more to hold. The decision itself is usually expected, so most of the movement comes from the hints about future decisions in the statement and the press conference.

## How a surprise against the forecast moves price

*Illustrative figures: a made-up example, not a forecast or a quote.*

The forecast is already priced in ahead of the release, because traders have had days to act on it. A surprise is the gap between the actual figure and the forecast, and the size of that gap is what moves price.

The numbers in this example are made up. Say a monthly jobs report is forecast to show 180,000 new jobs, with the previous figure sitting at 150,000. If the actual figure lands at 182,000, almost nothing happens, even though it’s a healthy number. But if it comes in at 90,000, the currency drops within seconds, because rate cuts now look more likely.

Now say the actual figure is 250,000, but the previous month’s number is revised down from 150,000 to 60,000. The headline beat the forecast, yet the revision removed more than the beat added. Price may jump up, then fall back as traders look beyond the first line. That kind of reversal is common, and it’s one reason [trading the news](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/fundamental-analysis/#news-trading) is harder than it looks.

## What happens to spreads and slippage around a release

Spreads and slippage both get worse in the minutes around a high-impact release. Until the number is out, banks and other price makers pull back their quotes. So there is less [liquidity](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/glossary/#liquidity), that is, fewer prices available to trade at.

- The spread gets wider. For a short while, the gap between the buy and sell price can be several times its normal size, so opening a trade costs more ([costs and fees](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/costs-and-fees/#spread)).
- Orders slip. A [market order](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/glossary/#market-order) or a stop gets filled at the next available price, and that price may be some way from the one you saw ([how a trade works](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/how-cfd-trading-works/#execution-and-slippage)).
- Price can gap. It can leap right over your stop-loss, so your trade can close far past the level you set ([risk management](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/risk-management/#stop-types)).
- A spread that grows wide can set off a stop on its own. The buy price triggers a stop on a sell trade, and that price rises when the spread widens even if the market hasn’t really moved.
- Your provider may change its terms. Some raise [margin](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/glossary/#margin) requirements or limit order types around major events, as their terms allow ([leverage and margin](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/leverage-and-margin/)).

## How to check the calendar before a trading day

Checking the calendar takes a few minutes and shows you when the day’s risky moments occur. People who never trade the news still use it to know when to expect a jump.

1. **Set the time zone** Set the calendar to your local time and check it against a release you recognise. Because the US, the UK and Europe change their clocks on different dates, the gap moves for a few weeks every spring and autumn ([trading hours](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/trading-hours/)).
2. **Filter by currency** Show only the currencies in the markets you trade. For a euro-dollar trade, that is euro-area and US releases.
3. **Note the high-impact times** Write down the time of each high-impact event. Treat the rating as the view of a single editor, and check the agency’s own schedule if you need the precise time.
4. **Look at your open trades** See which open trades and resting orders would be live during each release. Those trades and orders carry more risk at that moment than your stop distance suggests ([position sizing](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/risk-management/#position-sizing)).

## The CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report

The Commitments of Traders report, or COT report, is a weekly count of who holds which positions in US futures markets. The [CFTC](https://www.cftc.gov/), the US futures regulator, generally publishes the COT report each Friday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time, drawing on data from the Tuesday before ([CFTC](https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm)). For every market with 20 or more large traders, the report breaks down the open positions by type of trader ([CFTC](https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm)).

Currency traders use the COT report to gauge positioning. Although currency futures make up a small part of the overall currency market, the report serves as one of the few public counts showing how large speculators are positioned. A very one-sided position suggests many traders would have to exit if the price turned.

The COT report is a slow tool. It arrives three days old and covers futures only, so it tells you nothing about the [over-the-counter](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/glossary/#over-the-counter) market, where most currency trading happens. You’ll find it on calendars beside the fast releases, but it doesn’t trigger the same price jump.

## Knowing the release time doesn’t give you an edge

> **Risk warning.** Knowing when a release happens tells you when the market will move, but never which way it will go. Everyone uses the same calendar, and the firms that act fastest have faster connections than any retail platform. At the moment of a release, the spread is at its widest and stops slip the most, so a leveraged trade can lose more than you planned. Most retail CFD accounts lose money. National regulators put that share between 74 % and 89 %, [ESMA](https://www.esma.europa.eu/) reported ([ESMA press release](https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-agrees-prohibit-binary-options-and-restrict-cfds-protect-retail-investors)).

## Economic calendar questions

The economic calendar questions people search for most are answered in this FAQ, and each one gets a short answer that stands on its own.

### What is an economic calendar?

An economic calendar is a schedule of upcoming data releases and central-bank decisions. The calendar shows the time, the currency affected, an impact rating, the previous figure and the forecast for each event. Once published, the actual figure appears too. Traders use it to know when prices are likely to jump and when spreads are likely to widen.

### Is a forex calendar different from an economic calendar?

A forex calendar is an economic calendar sorted by currency. The calendar lists the same events: jobs reports, inflation figures, growth data and interest rate decisions. Third-party calendar sites and trading platforms add their own impact ratings and forecasts, but the dates and times all come from the official agencies’ schedules.

### What time is NFP released?

NFP comes out at 8:30 a.m. US Eastern time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics picks the dates ahead of time ([BLS schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm)). It’s most often a Friday early in the month, but the date can move, so check the official schedule.

### How does NFP affect forex?

NFP affects forex by shifting what traders expect the Federal Reserve to do with interest rates. The move depends on the surprise and on the revisions and pay figures in the same report, so the first reaction often reverses. A jobs figure well above the forecast tends to lift the dollar, and one well below tends to weaken it.

### How does CPI affect forex?

CPI affects forex because inflation drives interest rate decisions. When inflation comes in above the forecast, higher rates become more likely and that tends to support the currency. Inflation below the forecast does the opposite. A figure in line with the forecast usually moves little because the market had priced it in.

### Which forex news moves the market most?

The forex news that moves the market most is whatever shifts interest rate expectations: central-bank decisions, jobs reports such as NFP and inflation releases such as CPI. Growth figures and PMI surveys matter too, though usually less than those three. A political shock or other unscheduled news appears on no calendar and can move prices more than any of them.

### What is the COT report?

The COT report, short for the Commitments of Traders report, comes from the CFTC ([CFTC](https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm)). The report is a weekly breakdown of positions in US futures markets, showing how different groups of traders are positioned. The report is published with a delay of three days, so traders use it for background and not for timing.

## Sources

The original documents this page cites, in the order they first appear.

1. [U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/), BLS
2. [Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. [Consumer Price Index (CPI home)](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. [Schedule of Releases for the Consumer Price Index](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/), Federal Reserve
6. [Meeting calendars and information (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), Federal Reserve
7. [European Central Bank](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/), ECB
8. [Meetings of the Governing Council and the General Council](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html), European Central Bank
9. [Bank of England](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/), Bank of England
10. [Monetary policy](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy), Bank of England
11. [Gross Domestic Product](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
12. [Employment Situation](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
13. [Current Employment Statistics - CES (National)](https://www.bls.gov/ces/), U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
14. [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm), Federal Reserve
15. [Commodity Futures Trading Commission](https://www.cftc.gov/), CFTC
16. [Commitments of Traders](https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm), CFTC
17. [European Securities and Markets Authority](https://www.esma.europa.eu/), ESMA
18. [ESMA agrees to prohibit binary options and restrict CFDs to protect retail investors](https://www.esma.europa.eu/press-news/esma-news/esma-agrees-prohibit-binary-options-and-restrict-cfds-protect-retail-investors), ESMA, 2018-03-27

## Related pages

- [Fundamental analysis: what moves markets and why](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/fundamental-analysis/): What drives each market, the economic calendar, central banks, earnings, commodity supply, and news trading.
- [Forex trading: what forex is and how it works](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/forex-trading/): Currency pairs, pips and lots, trading hours, what moves exchange rates, and why swap can be paid to you.
- [Forex market hours and stock market trading hours](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/trading-hours/): Forex sessions, stock exchange hours in UTC, gold, oil and crypto, clock changes, and gaps at the open.
- [Risk management in trading: position size and stops](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/risk-management/): Risk per trade, sizing from your stop, the recovery table, stop types and the habits that empty accounts.
- [CFD and forex trading fees: spread, swap, commission](https://thetraderwiki.com/en/costs-and-fees/): Every cost of a CFD trade: spread, commission, overnight financing, weekend charges and account fees.

---

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